Learn the plays
The maths behind every alert we send, in plain english with worked numbers. No hype, no guarantees: our whole record is public on the results page.
Arbitrage: when bookies disagree
Bookmakers set their own prices, and sometimes two of them disagree so much that backing every outcome, each at the bookie paying most for it, returns more than you outlaid whichever way the game ends.
Worked example. Book A pays 2.10 for Over 44.5 points. Book B pays 2.10 for Under 44.5.
Stake $500 on each side, $1,000 total. Whichever side wins returns 2.10 × $500 = $1,050. Profit: $50, about 5%, either way.
The catch is speed and reality: these windows usually close in minutes, prices can move between seeing the bet and placing it, and bookmakers limit accounts that only ever take their mistakes. It is maths, not magic, and the stakes are real money until both bets are actually on.
Value betting: paying less than a thing is worth
Sharp bookmakers and betting exchanges, where real money trades both sides, produce the most accurate view of what odds should be. Strip out the bookmaker margin and you get a fair price. When an ordinary bookie posts a price meaningfully above fair, that single bet is worth more than it costs. Bet those consistently and the edge compounds.
Worked example. The sharpest markets say a team is a true 50/50 shot: fair odds 2.00. A bookie is paying 2.20. Over many such bets you collect about 10% more than the bet truly costs. Any single one still loses half the time.
That last sentence is the whole discipline: value betting is judged over months and volume, never on one result. The yardstick professionals use is closing line value (CLV): did the price you took beat the final market price at kickoff? If you consistently beat the close, the profit follows. Every alert we send is graded on CLV in public.
Middles: two lines that overlap
When bookmakers hang different lines on the same game, you can sometimes back Over at one number and Under at a higher number. Land between them and both bets win. Miss, and you lose only the small gap the prices imply.
Worked example. Over 42.5 at 1.90 with one book, Under 44.5 at 1.90 with another, $100 on each.
Total lands on 43 or 44: both bets win, $380 back on $200, profit $180. Any other total: one wins, $190 back on $200, a $10 cost.
Cheap lottery tickets with a known worst case. We price the hit chance from market odds, only alert when the numbers justify the cost, and flag the rare no lose middles that profit either way.
Bonus bets: turning promo credit into cash
Australian bookmakers hand existing customers bonus bets constantly. A bonus bet returns winnings only, not the stake, so its cash value is less than face value. The play: put the bonus on a longshot at one bookie and back the other side with cash elsewhere, so a known amount lands in your pocket whichever way it goes.
Worked example. A $50 bonus bet at odds 5.00 pays $200 if it wins, nothing back if it loses. Back the opposite result with $160 cash at 1.25 elsewhere.
Bonus side wins: $200 minus the $160 hedge = $40. Hedge side wins: $160 × 1.25 = $200, minus $160 staked = $40. Either way about 80% of the bonus turns into cash, before any exchange commission.
Our free calculators do these sums for any odds, and the Discord shows which current promos are worth the effort in your state.
How to read our numbers
- Units, not dollars. The public record scores every alert at a flat one unit stake, so results reflect the maths rather than anyone's bankroll.
- Claims get shaded. Our own graded history calibrates our alerts: when the record shows claims of a certain size have run ahead of reality, we lower the number we publish and say so on the alert. We would rather understate an edge than oversell one.
- Losses stay on the record. The results page and the Discord results channel grade every alert to the closing line, wins and losses alike. That is the proof either way.
Bankroll rules that keep you in the game
- Decide the bankroll first. An amount whose loss changes nothing about your life. Stakes are a percentage of it, never money you need.
- Flat stakes. The same unit on every bet of the same type. Doubling up after losses is how edges die.
- Judge months, not bets. A good bet that lost was still a good bet. Review CLV over volume.
- Verify at the book. Odds move. The price on the bookmaker's screen is the only real one.
Responsible gambling
AussiePlan is an information service for people who already bet, aged 18 and over. Betting should never be a plan to make money you rely on, and no edge removes risk. If gambling is causing you harm, free and confidential support is available at gamblinghelponline.org.au or on 1800 858 858, any time, and you can self exclude from all Australian bookmakers at betstop.gov.au.
Ready to see it live? Join the Discord for the free alert feed, or check the graded record first.